Performance and Predictability are naturally connected
When I race bikes, I train to get my body into peak condition so that when I show up for a race, I can expect I will produce a predictable performance. For example, I know that if I’ve trained sufficiently I can on any given day ride a 40km time trial between 56–58 minutes based upon the similarity of the course.
If I was racing on a professional team my team director would have those expectations in place before the race so that he would know where I should rank at the end of the race. And what is also known is that you can’t ask me to race faster than I can normally do. If the director came to me and asked me to do the 40km time trial in 51–52 minutes, I ‘might’ be able to do that, however, if this race was part of a stage race, then the team director would know that my long-term performance would suffer due to my pushing to get a couple of extra minutes. My performance would no longer be predictable because I pushed myself beyond my limits. You might not see the damage right away but in a 3-week stage race, I’d be turning squares in the third week and likely would be near the bottom of the rankings.
When I talk of the predictability of agile delivery teams, I’m talking about their ability to maximize their performance and then deliver the work that they do predictably. I’m not talking about predictably delivering a full project with known scope, the variables to do that are as vast as the reasons it’s so hard to win a race like the Tour de France. I can go into the race as a favorite, but there is never a guarantee that I will win, but my chances of winning are improved if I know how my performance will translate into predictable results across various racing terrains (mountains, flats, time trials). Just like development teams, we need to have predictable performance so that we increase our chances of delivering work that will end up being a winner for our customers and business.
And in a bike race even though I may be producing predictable results every race, there are crashes and mechanical issues that can derail me from hitting my goal of winning the race. As business leaders you must be aware of this, teams will face unexpected challenges, from technical to organizational, that will keep them from delivering what they are being asked to deliver. The only thing the team controls is their performance.
Predictability isn’t a bad thing and is something that every business wants, from their sales, operations, and technology groups. They all work together. If one fails, the rest suffer.
You can’t push people beyond their limits and expect them to perform long-term beyond their limits. For organizations, this results in poor quality, low morale, and high turnover. Agile can help optimize your delivery capabilities, it can’t solve all of your organizational problems.
